• Trend maps
• Identifying ‘weak signals’
• Risk analysis and identification of ‘wild cards’
• Timelines of future events

• Mapping the research agenda
• Identifying the frontiers of global and Russian science
• Identifying promising technologies, products, and research topics within the frontiers

• Priority areas and list of critical technologies
• Technology scoring (technology guides and profiles)
• TRL (Technology Readiness Levels)
• Patent and bibliometric analysis of promising fields and exploratory research
• Big data analytics (iFORA)

• PESTLE analysis of external factors
• Identification of critical uncertainties
• Scenario matrices and dashboards
• Translating scenarios into numerical indicators
• Integrating scenarios into the regular planning process

• External environment analysis and challenge assessment
• Market and needs analysis
• Technology area mapping and R&D planning
• Resources and competencies

• Foresight training
• Foresight elective

• Matrix of prioritised market niches
• Assessments of: Potential Available Market, Total Addressable Market, Serviceable Available Market, Serviceable Obtainable Market
• Future products profile

• Quantitative market estimates
• Demand analysis
• Maturity assessment
• New market entry scenarios

• Horizon scanning: analysis of weak signals and global trends, as well as patent analysis to identify hidden technological opportunities
• Future scenario modelling to shape a resilient strategy
• Gathering and verifying insights from leading global scientists, engineers, and industry analysts
• Roadmapping

Product Name: ‘Vision of the Future’

Developer: HSE Foresight Centre

Product Type: Strategic management consulting (including methodological support, moderation, and training)

 

1. Product Description

The ‘Vision of the Future’ corporate foresight is a comprehensive company diagnostic that considers market trends in order to establish long-term goals and the steps required to achieve them.

Product Value

• expertise and proprietary databases
• proven scenario-planning methodology
• experience in developing roadmaps
• a set of strategic documents: scenario-based forecast and technology guide (technology roadmap) with a five-plus-year horizon along with recommendations for implementing foresight findings
• monitoring and impact assessment for subsequent adjustments

2. Methodological Framework

A set of methods for assessing strategic development directions and latent opportunities by identifying branching points and technological breakthroughs that impact the economy and society in the medium and long term.

 

Key methods: horizon scanning and analysis of trends, ‘weak signals,’ and ‘wild cards’; scenario modelling; stakeholder analysis; and technology roadmapping.

3. Product Structure

Module 1. Diagnosis and Problem Definition

Activities: identification of relevant drivers, barriers, threats, and ‘windows of opportunity’; analysis of promising markets, products/services, and technologies based on breakthrough research findings.

Methods: bibliometric and patent analysis of the studied field; lists of ‘weak signals,’ ‘wild cards,’ and influencing factors (internal and external) based on STEEPV analysis; as well as findings and interpretations derived from expert interviews and surveys.

Result: a map of factors shaping a vision of the future according to STEEPV (including threats and ‘windows of opportunity’).

Module 2. Shaping Visions of the Future

 

Activities: formulating a vision of the future; describing both desired and realistic scenarios.

Methods: scenario planning; strategic growth metrics linked to time horizons.

Result: ‘vision of the future’ scenario map; STEEPV and market environment analysis; profiles of consumers and winning and losing competitors; and assessment of key risks and opportunities under each scenario.

Module 3. Development of Technology Roadmaps

Activities: development of technology profiles.

Methods: technology guide for translating a vision of the future into the project management realm.

Result: a visualised development plan covering products/services, markets, technologies, initiatives/projects, and research, mapped across time horizons (short-, medium-, and long-term) and assigned to specific executors and KPIs.

4. Format of Presentation

1. Scenarios for alternative future options and justification for the choice of target scenario.

2. Technology roadmap: detailed company development plan aligned with selected goals, covering a planning horizon of 5+ years and including sequential stages, risks, resources, and milestones.

5. ‘Vision of the Future’ Product Development Levels

1. Global. The ‘Vision of the Future’ is constructed based on global megatrends and global markets and consumer behaviour analysis.

2. National. The ‘Vision of the Future’ is built upon global perspective, incorporating Russian trends and scenario-based forecasts for Russia through 2036.

3. Corporate. The company's ‘Vision of the Future’ is developed by taking into account global and national forecasts, including industry-specific market analysis and the assessment of a specific client's resource and technological capabilities.

6. Target Audience

• Large corporations (identifying ‘growth points,’ including those outside current business operations).
• Industry-specific executive bodies (developing industry strategies).
• Regional administrations (socio-economic development strategies).
• Technology startups and platforms (formulating long-term scaling strategies).